(co-authored with Benjamin Weiser)

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A Waterfall of Impacts

Federal retrenchment has immediate direct effects, intermediate indirect effects, and longer-term structural effects – all of which are compounding. We separate these into three orders of effects:

• Immediate fiscal and operational impacts (first order),

• Intermediate tax and economic shocks (second order), and

• Long-run structural implications (third order).

First Order Effects

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Second Order Effects

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Third Order Effects

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Many young researchers say they are having to choose between staying in the United States and staying in science. America shouldn’t take scientific progress in medicine, artificial intelligence, and more for granted. If the youngest, brightest minds aren’t soon reassured that the United States can support their work – and that scientific inquiry will be protected from political interference – they will walk away.

Responding to Cascading Effects

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Bruce Katz is the Founding Director of the Nowak Metro Finance Lab at Drexel University. Benjamin Weiser is a Research Officer at the Nowak Lab.